My 5 Minute Morning Routine

I know I’m not the only person who experiences this but I’ve struggled with negative thinking my whole life. I don’t mean that I always expect things to go wrong. It’s more like, when I have too much time to think about things, I get “down”, and when I get down, I get unproductive. When I get unproductive, I get more negative. So it becomes a cycle. And I mostly feel this way early in the morning right when I wake up and late at night right before I go to sleep, which led me to explore and experiment with my morning routine and night routine.

A few weeks ago, I started doing something that, so far at least, has gotten me out of the negativity cycle and allowed me to start my day feeling mentally at peace. I’m not saying this will work for everyone but it’s been working for me. I do the following things within the first 10 minutes of waking up:

Step 1: I write down what I am most grateful for that morning. I try to be completely honest with myself on this. If I’m honestly most grateful that I’m about to drink a cup of coffee, I write that down. If I’m grateful that a big project is over, I write that down. The key is being honest with myself. One thing I’ve noticed is that as time goes on, I’m more grateful for my problems – which sounds ridiculous! Sometimes things that seem like problems are actually blessings. I was recently struggling between a few different career moves and was really stressed out about the decision until one day it just hit me that I’m so incredibly fortunate to even have 1 opportunity, let alone several.

Step 2: I write down one thing that I want to accomplish that day. This is a lot different than a to-do list. I make sure I limit it to just one thing. We all usually have so many competing priorities that our brains can only process that there’s a ton of “stuff” to get done today. Unfortunately for most of us, there’s more “stuff” out there than we can ever do in 24 hours so we need to prioritize. Writing just one thing forces me to really figure out what my top priority is for the day.

Two steps seems too good to be true but I’m not arguing with the results so far! I may add things or tweak this morning routine as time goes on but for now, I’m planning to stick with it.

 

Human Hubris and the Big Data Fallacy

I recently finished reading both The Black Swan and Antifragile by Nassim Taleb and find myself constantly thinking of the “Turkey Problem”. For those unfamiliar with Taleb’s work, the Turkey Problem relates to the fallacy of thinking that past results indicate future trends.

Taleb uses a turkey being raised for Thanksgiving as an illustration. The turkey is being fed and taken care of every day of its life from birth until the day it dies. A human is feeding the turkey, providing it with shelter, and protecting it from the harshness of the real world (predators, weather, etc). After the first X number of days, the turkey starts to truly believe that the world is a place where humans constantly help it improve it’s well-being. By extrapolating to the future, the turkey predicts (perhaps using Big Data techniques?) that this state of affairs will go on forever. Unfortunately for the turkey, on day 1001, the day before Thanksgiving, the plump turkey is killed and is used as the centerpiece for your Thanksgiving meal. Yum!

If the turkey were using modern statistical models, this event would’ve come as a complete shock. Extrapolation is dangerous territory but what makes this situation even worse is that the turkey is in the most danger exactly when the model says he’s safest! (after 1000 days of data)

 

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Being in the SF Bay Area, naturally my thoughts drifted to the rise of “Big Data” and how it is being used in almost every industry now to “optimize” and make predictions about the future. In markets where there are physical constraints and well understood rules on things (bounds, defined odds, etc), there is definitely value to having a model and using it as a predictor. For example, a casino can model the behavior of gamblers to optimize profits. Fine. No problem with that.

Where things get tricky is when people take complex systems that are not well understood and try to build models on top of that. Don’t get me wrong, there is nothing wrong with having models and using them to try to create a picture of the universe in some controlled manner. Where these models get dangerous is when people use them exclusively to drive company policy or worse, government policy to force people into their contrived version of “reality”. Prime examples of dangerous models include anything health, climate, or economy related.

In case you think the turkey example is only limited to poultry, remember that after every major global event in our lives, the people in charge said that “this couldn’t have been predicted”. They’re right. Everything from 9/11 to the 2008 economic meltdown to Fukishima, every major event that has shaped the present has been a surprise that went beyond anything that was modeled.

There’s a reason for this. A model simply cannot predict something that hasn’t happened before if it is only using past events as a basis for future events.

And to finish this post off, here’s a prediction by Nobel Prize winning economist Paul Krugman made in 1998 about the future of the Internet:

“The growth of the Internet will slow drastically, as the flaw in “Metcalfe’s law”–which states that the number of potential connections in a network is proportional to the square of the number of participants–becomes apparent: most people have nothing to say to each other! By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet’s impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine’s” (emphasis mine)

With a track record like that, you’d think people would stop listening to the forecasters. Unfortunately, that’s not the case. Paul Krugman is still out there, making predictions and writing his weekly column in the New York Times. That’s human hubris right there.

 

Don’t Get It Twisted: Customer Development = Startup Sales

There seems to be a misconception out there in startup world. There is plenty of talk about “customer development” and Lean Startup Methodology (talking to and learning from potential customers) in the product development stage, which is great. But there is simultaneously a sense of apprehension when it comes to “monetizing”, as if it’s this mythical, frightening beast. I’ll let you in on a secret: customer development and early stage startup sales are literally the same process.

This comes back to a fundamental misunderstanding of what selling is. Way more than any slick sales pitch, it’s about matching your offering with a customer’s need. To create this match between product and need, you need to listen but you also need to expose yourself to failure by trying to sell and seeing what happens. The biggest mistake you can make is giving the impression that your product is free when it actually isn’t.

And once you do bring up price, always be ready to close the deal! Most people separate customer development from sales so that they are either only:

1) Learning during customer development conversations

2) Trying to sell while in sales calls with potential customers and not trying to learn anything

Yesware’s founder Matthew Bellows offers a warning of this exact symptom in one of his early blog posts where a potential customer was ready to buy licenses for their sales team but he was too busy thinking of potential features to notice the buyer’s intentions. Yesware has raised double digit millions and is absolutely crushing it (I love using horrible cliches) so if they can make a mistake like this, it’s very possible that you can too.

But what happens if you misread the potential customer’s intentions, try to sell them, and they reject you? You’ll hit an objection. Objections are great because you learn why the customer is saying no! If it’s something wrong with your product, you can now go fix that problem. If it’s related to your pricing, you can work on that. The real problems come when you aren’t getting any feedback on why the customer isn’t buying – it’s impossible to fix the problem when you don’t know what the problem is in the first place.

There’s another hidden advantage to having paying customers – it’s way easier to get useful feedback. At one of my previous companies, we went down the free trial route and got solid adoption from one of the core audience groups (high school counselors). The problem? They never used the product unless we told them to. We weren’t sure if it was because of our design, our product, or if we just weren’t solving a true need. You’ll never have this problem if you’re asking initial users to pay money to use your product – they’ll either not buy your product or they’ll quickly cancel if you aren’t solving their need.

Don’t overcomplicate things. If you’re doing customer development already, just add a step and try to close the sale. Worst case, you’ll learn more and if all goes well, you’ll have some revenue. And if you’re not already doing customer development and you run a startup, the time to start was yesterday 🙂

 

The Importance Of Pricing Model In Product Market Fit

Product-market fit is the holy grail for startups. Reaching product-market fit means you’re ready to scale. On the surface, it’s a pretty simple concept: you’ve built a product that solves a critical problem for your target customer and they are paying you money for you to solve their problem. That said, it’s actually quite complex to achieve product market fit. In fact, most startups never achieve product-market fit (and this is the reason why so many startups fail). Even if you have a great product that solves a critical problem, having the wrong pricing model will mean you receive all the wrong signals from potential customers. Most entrepreneurs will then continue fidgeting with their product, thinking that’s why customers aren’t buying. Here’s another thing you should tweak: your pricing model.

There are a few different pricing models your business can use (see below). None of them is superior to the other in general – it just depends on the nature of your business and the value you provide to the customer.

 

Pricing models

Subscription – time-period based fee for your product (usually monthly or annual)

Performance – broken down by key performance metrics for your industry (if you occupy a single industry) or general important metrics in your ecosystem (ex. clicks for Google Adwords, Likes for Facebook, or app installs for Facebook mobile).

One time fee – pretty self explanatory

 

The pricing model you choose matters more than you think. If you have a transactional product and sell using a subscription model, traction will be extremely difficult. Customers won’t see the value up front and retention of existing customers will be an uphill battle that you’ll ultimately lose. Transactional products (particularly marketplaces) have irregular “trigger events” which means that on a subscription model, either the customer is going to be overpaying (you’re delivering too few trigger events) or underpaying (you’re delivering too many trigger events for the price you charge). The former is a much worse problem. Losing customers, especially at the early stage when most people in the market don’t even know you exist, will absolutely kill your business.

Sometimes the pricing model is the main thing preventing you from recognizing product-market fit. We saw this first-hand last year at Mom Trusted. At Mom Trusted, we have 2 account levels, free and premium. For months, we tried to push a subscription model for our premium customers. We were able to get a handful of customers but our churn rate was high and revenue was lacking.

After some thought and coming to the realization that we were offering something transactional, we decided to experiment with a transactional pricing model. In our industry, there are 3 key metrics for our customers (child care center owners) – leads, tours, and enrollments. Transactional pricing meant charging our customers only when they received a lead, tour, or enrollment through us. Each of these 3 transactions were priced differently according to the point of the customer’s sales funnel they were delivered to.

So what were the results? After switching to a transactional model 6 months ago, we now have twenty times (20X) more signed customers than we previously did. Even better, we have barely changed the product on the customer side during that time. The only change we made was a tweak in our pricing model.

Figuring out the ideal pricing model for your company starts with truly understanding your customer, the problem you’re solving for them, and the solution you’re offering. If you’re struggling to find product-market fit, play with your pricing model a bit. The exercise of thinking about what goes into a pricing model will force you to think deeply about your target market and offering which is never a bad thing in the early stages.